信达证券：农业整体向好 关注子行业龙头股

信达证券发布农林牧渔行业中期策略称，农业大年，共享景气。海参板块：行业供给端主动去产能叠加主产区高温被减产，需求端增速稳步提升，供需缺口逐步兑现，参价景气有望延续至2020年。重点推荐好当家。食糖板块：考虑到19/20榨季主产区印度干旱和乙醇替代减产、泰国甘蔗的转移种植、巴西新榨季初的极低糖醇比、欧盟增产乏力，全球产需结余进一步下降甚至出现缺口成大概率事件，产需结余持续下降带动糖业供需的边际改善，糖价有望走出底部，进入1-2年的上行周期。建议糖周期底部布局，有望实现估值和业绩的双击。重点推荐中粮糖业。禽养殖板块：上游产能偏紧白鸡行业景气期有望延续至明年，期间行业维持景气也将持续催化板块行情逐步向上，建议整体性配置。种业和种植业：我国农业基础薄弱，受国外进口的依赖和冲击较大，尤其在中 美贸易战后农产品贸易政策被动开放的情况下，亟待供给侧的改革和重整以保证我国农业竞争地位和国家粮食安全。粮食价值相对芯片更是“芯中之芯”，此外今年自然灾害严峻，有望催涨价格，重点推荐北大荒、亚盛集团，建议关注隆平高科。综合来看，农业整体向好，部分细分行业基本面与估值更是背离严重。当前中国经济形势下，随着由量到质、由外到内的加快转变，农业价值愈发显现，板块估值正面临一个重要的历史转折点。

 

 

 

 

688392

 

 

 

0.2214%

 

 

 

 

 

海鸥住工

 

0.4057%

 

 

3320.0

-0.42%

盈利预测与投资评级:我们预计公司2019-2021年每股收益分别为0.08/0.09/0.10元。未来三年预测PE分别为42/39/33倍。考虑到公司产业基础良好,布局合理,销售前景广阔、潜力大。我们维持对公司的“增持”评级。

688387

 

0.1662%

华康医疗

 

 

0.132%

 

 

 

大禹生物（871970）：

 

 

 

002543

 

 

 

 

 

依托农水现代化助力农业现代化，从“三农三水”问题入手。农村水利基础设施建设是农业现在化的重中之重，农水现代化是推动农村水利基础设施建设的关键。农水现代化包含自动化、信息化、智能化三个方面，具体到实践环节，智慧水务科技公司通过以下手段实现三者：

 

600777

5.30%

140135.35

350246.86

210111.51

21.15

23.91%

1.36%

80057.80

291784.53

211726.74

3.38

15.07%

4.06%

42588.94

127442.02

10.78

13.62%

9.96%

41153.82

74899.19

33745.38

35.30%

8.62%

40507.79

130186.36

89678.57

24.25

17.86%

9.97%

34412.05

52016.77

17604.72

1361.13

46.64%

5.42%

32966.77

87582.55

54615.78

15.37

21.79%

8.71%

29552.94

81691.07

52138.13

46.71

21.05%

10.00%

29496.61

75404.29

45907.68

72.10

22.94%

7.62%

27097.65

116165.56

89067.91

7.91

12.78%

7.38%

25514.57

75599.00

50084.43

59.94

19.30%

6.98%

25432.20

80468.10

55035.90

15.97

18.03%

10.00%

25163.42

26774.91

1611.49

633.42

88.48%

10.00%

25157.31

31775.07

6617.76

914.01

63.83%

69.37%

24988.18

92552.07

67563.89

1187.78

15.63%

5.18%

24975.37

73213.38

48238.01

10.71

19.41%

5.90%

23856.56

60356.60

21.54

23.58%

3.56%

23279.03

116709.28

15.76

10.62%

6.81%

22366.18

59434.47

37068.28

27.46

22.18%

10.08%

22104.03

47096.33

24992.30

397.33

28.35%

-34237.27

78247.69

112484.96

-35.92

17.18%

-33686.23

179626.01

213312.24

8.19%

-2.92%

-32132.53

84955.95

117088.48

-76.90

15.20%

-22239.08

111635.50

133874.59

-16.58

8.80%

-2.94%

67933.83

90014.54

-109.74

13.74%

-2.79%

-21923.71

74078.26

96001.97

-37.33

12.36%

-20939.58

21016.98

41956.56

-2.46

32.21%

-2.13%

-20342.69

74024.57

94367.26

-24.93

11.60%

-2.23%

-18131.26

53437.49

71568.76

-69.46

13.94%

-17641.51

30424.67

48066.18

-1.50

21.84%

1.43%

-17347.13

84639.94

101987.07

-16.92

9.23%

-4.75%

-17177.99

45697.56

62875.55

-24.25

15.42%

-3.46%

-16695.73

70143.20

86838.93

-55.50

10.09%

-6.09%

-15436.45

44269.16

59705.61

-17.40

14.22%

-1.56%

-14943.75

57787.75

72731.50

-2.90

11.09%

-14805.77

68685.97

83491.74

-2.11

9.46%

-3.48%

-14657.62

33162.38

-107.18

17.59%

-5.48%

-13944.05

51111.46

65055.51

-191.18

11.80%

-4.58%

-13938.96

58476.93

72415.90

-14.81

10.21%

-1.09%

-13442.70

40522.58

53965.28

-11.72

13.80%

1.92%

2082503.69

20888658.45

18806154.76

6.00

7.25%

2.52%

222973.53

1504561.84

1281588.30

9.14

9.91%

2.87%

159894.54

851425.97

7.04

8.55%

2.33%

112519.64

811814.35

699294.71

9.16

7.58%

3.68%

106953.05

493086.67

386133.62

13.77

8.88%

6.98%

299596.48

212796.11

26.92

10.44%

3.43%

79225.71

307014.33

227788.61

19.06

14.29%

2.59%

345885.92

269435.27

21.00

9.31%

3.18%

73175.08

376511.90

303336.82

12.36

14.83%

6.63%

55928.12

157518.77

58.31

26.34%

-154928.14

1247871.54

1402799.68

-4.26

4.76%

1182149.73

1.35%

-6115.03

91612.72

97727.75

-5.34

2.52%

-977.17

734671.24

735648.41

1.46%

339.73

1252.57

912.83

27.44

15.54%

2523.94

852646.51

5.05%

11406.41

40908.75

29502.35

36.53

15.29%

35137.19

556366.69

521229.50

2.73

2.24%

2.19%

44233.57

308442.79

264209.22

7.66

8.92%

6.63%

55928.12

157518.77

58.31

26.34%

10.27

9.96%

3048.0

3.81%

2.428%

6.981%

1.61

3.21%

3013.0

5.63

3.3%

2989.0

1.92

2545.0

5.18

9.98%

2431.0

2.8906%

4.6776%

2.67

4.3%

2267.0

11.12

5.9%

1953.0

1.16

5.05

10.02%

1363.0

1.0887%

1.2737%

2.93

5.02%

9.2

5.02%

1091.0

1.6149%

1.47%

2.3369%

24.54

4.87%

1082.0

6.89

5.19%

1.63

1.24%

941.0

4.6

3.37%

937.0

19.79

6.4%

935.0

3.84

4.07%

14.37

2.28%

864.0

4.84

5.68%

2.63

2.33%

804.0

2.83

9.69%

5921.0

1.8794%

1.1864%

4.51

10.0%

7.9143%

7.6703%

6.16

10.0%

3478.0

5.393%

3.019%

8.973%

5.06

10.0%

3473.0

5.2565%

2.284%

7.5045%

7.61

9.97%

3415.0

10.2793%

10.6073%

5.46

10.08%

3.2585%

2.229%

4.6915%

5.46

5.81%

2976.0

2.22

3.26%

7.7

6.8%

2352.0

1.202%

4.43

9.93%

2294.0

2.731%

-1.719%

7.441%

8.012%

5.21

6.76%

2027.0

6.96

9.95%

1935.0

6.7596%

2.138%

10.3856%

3.76

3.01%

1788.0

2.4

10.09%

1741.0

1.3595%

4.14

10.11%

1652.0

1.6411%

5.4931%

3.35

1597.0

4.47

10.1%

1532.0

1.7492%

2.3352%

1.83

2.81%

1527.0

5.35

10.08%

1497.0

3.6679%

1.379%

4.5299%

9.98

10.03%

1286.0

1.3181%

1.4871%

2.84

7025.0

1.61

5813.0

4.35

4124.0

2.5

2365.0

3.05

4.28

1403.0

12.43

-2.13%

1245.0

3.13

1193.0

4.59

1141.0

5.46

1.11%

1127.0

15.89

-3.46%

953.0

3.28

-1.5%

842.0

1.4515%

-6.77%

-6.5195%

4.53

5.49

-6.15%

825.0

1.4664%

1.4664%

7.61

-1.68%

758.0

24.04

-2.79%

2.74

-1.08%

703.0

3.87

657.0

6.02

610.0

2.4

-5.88%

594.0

-3.467%

-2.606%

-5.7048%

3.2

-3.03%

2296.0

1.1873%

1.496%

3.97

1662.0

7.7453%

3.13

-1.26%

1598.0

1.0165%

1.8685%

3.44

1352.0

1.3918%

-1.195%

2.3288%

5.08

1258.0

-1.2475%

5.85

-1.02%

1137.0

4.06

-2.87%

1111.0

-1.294%

1.6

-1.23%

861.0

-4.075%

-3.557%

24.12

-2.94%

788.0

13.48

1.43%

753.0

14.02

-1.48%

713.0

6.75

4.58

2.4427%

5.3

-1.85%

651.0

1.0897%

3.7

-2.37%

609.0

1.267%

-5.1652%

3.68

-1.6%

564.0

1.54%

3.543%

8.2089%

2.52

-2.33%

525.0

1.0701%

4.79

521.0

4.72

15.3

-3.41%

488.0

-1.134%

123.19

6.7864%

4.0719%

12.51%

42.81

15.61%

18.5124%

6.1708%

3.7025%

5.18%

54.49

13.76%

16.6527%

5.5509%

3.3305%

3.03%

10.86

-3.98%

16.2445%

5.4148%

3.2489%

3.6%

179.6

12.23%

15.7226%

5.2409%

3.1445%

7.44%

28.74

11.66%

15.4612%

5.1537%

3.0922%

6.24%

14.16

-7.09%

14.6552%

4.8851%

2.931%

8.39%

13.92

10.04%

14.4306%

4.8102%

2.8861%

6.21%

28.31

8.76%

13.3575%

4.4525%

2.6715%

3.66%

23.6

7.76%

12.6754%

4.2251%

2.5351%

7.27%

29.17

7.09%

12.6697%

4.2232%

2.5339%

7.66%

28.4

7.17%

12.5179%

4.1726%

2.5036%

1.91%

58.16

10.78%

12.4906%

4.1635%

2.4981%

6.89%

28.99

11.29%

12.1396%

4.0465%

2.4279%

2.0%

29.71

5.47%

12.1046%

4.0349%

2.4209%

11.12%

9.39

3.3%

12.0867%

4.0289%

2.4173%

6.69%

48.5

11.75%

11.9937%

3.9979%

2.3987%

2.38%

39.78

10.81%

11.7561%

3.9187%

2.3512%

5.93%

18.64

7.75%

11.534%

3.8447%

2.3068%

3.83%

14.32

9.98%

11.5299%

3.8433%

2.306%

4.64%

15.68%

21.0653%

7.0218%

4.2131%

37.56

19.1483%

6.3828%

3.8297%

12.65%

104.01

18.87%

19.0977%

6.3659%

3.8195%

4.33%

22.79

15.22%

17.8328%

5.9443%

3.5666%

12.21%

14.27

10.02%

17.4724%

5.8241%

3.4945%

15.56%

26.44

-4.38%

17.0588%

5.6863%

3.4118%

7.1%

26.45

5.46%

16.4912%

5.4971%

3.2982%

49.55%

4.94

12.53%

16.055%

5.3517%

3.211%

5.98%

86.03

9.13%

15.6388%

5.2129%

3.1278%

2.88%

5.46

10.08%

15.5211%

5.1737%

3.1042%

14.22%

9.23

10.01%

15.4472%

5.1491%

3.0894%

9.31%

12.07

10.03%

15.4463%

5.1488%

3.0893%

23.44%

7.55

8.01%

15.3727%

5.1242%

3.0745%

13.55%

31.7

4.9%

14.8763%

4.9588%

2.9753%

14.1%

24.03

15.25%

14.2521%

4.7507%

2.8504%

3.5%

7.67

-6.92%

14.0827%

4.6942%

2.8165%

13.39%

9.99%

14.0366%

4.6789%

2.8073%

51.87%

17.14

11.52%

13.9382%

4.6461%

2.7876%

4.12%

4.47

10.1%

13.8191%

4.6064%

2.7638%

8.14%

8.73%

13.3739%

4.458%

2.6748%

18.16%

5.93%

119667.22

10.08%

5.48%

86003.99

9.99%

5.42%

8556.59

8.1%

5.29%

24647.39

10.03%

5.26%

94783.62

10.01%

5.16%

31052.55

15.25%

5.01%

10.0%

4.95%

1898.06

7.0%

4.88%

72333.19

6.53%

4.85%

180327.29

15.25%

4.71%

54417.15

8.86%

4.58%

25427.14

10.02%

4.4%

8.71%

4.37%

9158.78

8.93%

4.37%

8662.73

10.09%

4.36%

14574.17

10.04%

4.32%

16834.62

10.08%

4.28%

93334.36

10.0%

4.25%

381173.7

15.25%

4.24%

544439.63

10.03%

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